Distinguishing the signal ...

Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
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 Nate Silver

Quotes from the same author

If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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 Nate Silver
Racism is predictable. It's predicted by interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.
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 Nate Silver
Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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 Nate Silver
Shakespeare's plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides them.
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 Nate Silver
Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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 Nate Silver